The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 5 of the 2019/20 English Premier League.
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Liverpool vs. Newcastle
Back Liverpool in the head-to-head at 1.16 (Betfair)
Back Liverpool -1.5 at 1.45 (bet365)
Liverpool bring a 13-game winning streak into this clash. They have gone 17-2-0 at home over the last 12 months, with 14 of those wins coming by 2+ goals. Five of Liverpool’s last six home wins over Newcastle were by 2+ goal margins. Liverpool won this fixture 4-0 last season.
Manchester United vs. Leicester City
Back Leicester City +0.5 at 2.14 (Betfair)
Manchester United have only won 1 of their last 9 EPL fixtures, going 1-4-4 during that stretch. Leicester are currently tied 2nd for the stingiest defence this season and are looking better by the week. The Foxes bring a five-game unbeaten streak into this clash.
Brighton vs. Burnley
Back Burnley +0.5 at 1.79 (Betfair)
Burnley are a tough nut to crack and they look better already this season for not having to juggle Europa League duties like they did last season. The Clarets are only 1-1-2 for the season, but they’ve had a tough opening schedule. Brighton have gone 0-2-2 against Burnley since promotion to the Premier League. The Seagulls have only won 1 of their last 13 EPL fixtures, going 1-4-8 during that stretch.
Wolverhampton vs. Chelsea
Back Wolverhampton in the head-to-head at 3.10 (Betfair)
Back Wolverhampton +0.5 at 1.64 (Betfair)
Wolverhampton have made a 0-3-1 start to their EPL campaign as they’ve had to juggle their EPL duties with their Europa League commitments. They’ve already had to play five more games than most other EPL clubs, which has forced the rotation of the squad between fixtures. The reason I’m backing Wolverhampton this week is because they’ve had a week off due to the international break. They take on a young Chelsea side that has a bad habit of fading at the ends of games. Prior to the international break Chelsea blew a 2-0 lead to draw Sheffield United at home. The week before that they only squeaked by 3-2 against Norwich. Wolverhampton won’t mind being the underdog given they have gone 3-1-2 as the home underdog over the last 12 months. They picked up four points against Chelsea last season, which included a 2-1 win at home. This season’s Chelsea, missing talisman Eden Hazard, looks much weaker than the 2018/19 version of the side.
Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Back Tottenham in the head-to-head at 1.39 (Betfair)
Tottenham have a 10-1-1 record against Crystal Palace and they are on an eight-game winning streak against the south London club. In six attempts Palace have failed to score an away goal against Tottenham.
Back Crystal Palace +2.5 at 1.33 (Betfair)
Roy Hodgson is a shrewd operator who has made Crystal Palace defensively sound. For this reason they rarely suffer large defeats. Over the last 12 months Palace have not lost a game by more than a two-goal margin. Tottenham haven’t beaten Crystal Palace by more than two goals in their twelve meetings since Palace’s promotion.
Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.40 (Betfair)
All six previous EPL fixtures where Tottenham hosted Crystal Palace have gone under 2.5 goals. Ten of their 12 meetings all up have gone under this total, including their last six meetings. Crystal Palace enter this clash with the 3rd lowest scoring offence and the best defensive record in the competition, which lends itself to low scoring games.
Back the Tottenham 1-0 Crystal Palace correct score at 7.50 (bet365, BlueBet, BetEasy)
Back the Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace correct score at 7.50 (bet365)
Combining the above three picks, the two correct scores that stand out are for Tottenham to win 1-0 or 2-0. Five of the last six meetings between the two were won 1-0 by Tottenham, while the sixth was won 2-0. At the time of writing Betfair haven’t released their correct score markets. Betfair typically provides the best correct score odds so keep an eye out for their market later in the week.
Norwich vs. Manchester City
Back Man City in the head-to-head at 1.17 (Betfair)
Man City have won their last 9 straight away fixtures while Norwich have the worst defensive record in the competition.
Back Over 2.5 goals at 1.28 (Betfair)
Norwich have determined to not be overawed this season and have stuck to the attacking style of play that won them the Championship last season. While this has resulted in 6 goals scored in 4 games, it has also seen them concede 10 goals, which is the most in the competition. Norwich have been most prolific at home, where they have scored five of their six goals. Both of their previous two home fixtures went over 3.5 goals. Man City have scored at least two goals in each of their last five games. They have scored a total of 12 goals in their last three away fixtures.
Watford vs. Arsenal
Back Arsenal in the head-to-head at 2.06 (Betfair)
Back Arsenal +0.5 at 1.32 (Betfair)
Arsenal aren’t normally a team that I trust on the road but you’re getting over 2.00 odds for them against a side that brings 0-2-6 form into this clash. Watford have sacked coach Javi Gracia just four games into the season and have reappointed Quique Sanchez Flores as head coach. This appointment has seen Arsenal drift out from 1.72 odds. Sanchez’s record at the helm of Watford is no better than Garcia’s, however, and Watford have a 1-0-3 home record against Arsenal since promotion. Arsenal have won the last three meetings between the two sides.
Aston Villa vs. West Ham
Back West Ham in the head-to-head at 2.65 (Unibet)
Back West Ham +0.5 at 1.58 (Betfair)
Aston Villa have had no luck so far this campaign, as highlighted by their disallowed goal against Crystal Palace. I’m siding with West Ham nonetheless given the Hammers’ good form. Sebastien Haller has scored three goals in two games, Felipe Anderson has been excellent and Andriy Yarmolenko has made a successful return from injury. West Ham bring 5-1-1 form into this clash. They have won their last two games, both by 2-goal margins.
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